Crawford paints grim picture for Caribbean tourism

WESTERN BUREAU:

UNIVERSITY OF the West Indies tourism lecturer Damion Crawford has painted a grim picture of a protracted recovery period for Caribbean tourism.

The period spans more than 18 months.

According to Crawford, who served as junior minister of tourism under the People’s National Party administration, the impact of the pandemic will have grave effects on Caribbean tourism in particular and Caribbean economies in general, as his findings suggest the most likely “case of light at the end of the tunnel is the beginning of June 2021, with 80 per cent recovery by winter 2021”.

“This will suggest great pain for the tourist-dependent countries within the Caribbean,” Crawford noted.

Crawford’s research paper, a rapid assessment titled ‘The Estimated Time of Recovery for Caribbean Tourism Industry from COVID-19’, comes on the heels of the Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association’s recent report which stated that the industry has experienced “near-complete suspension”, with travel advisories being issued and international carriers discontinuing flights.

Crawford said the region’s tourism recovery will be predicated on four premises, which he described as perception of safety of home destination; perception of safety of host destination; intention to travel; and the act of travel itself. He said the extent of the recovery can be measured by an achievement of 80 per cent of pre-COVID visitor numbers and an achievement of 80 per cent of pre-COVID average daily rate.

“In the case of the Caribbean, it is my opinion that the first hurdle to cross is likely visitors’ perception that home is safe. In the Caribbean, this mainly has to do with British, Canadian and American citizens. In Jamaica’s case, it is highly dependent on the New York/Tri-state area,” he explained.

REALISTIC TIMELINE

Crawford said in the best-case scenario, the perception of home country safety in the major markets will likely be achieved by June 30, with the most realistic timeline being August 1. He also said the perception of safety of host country was peculiar, as this is the first crisis which simultaneously holds a host country and generating country risk.

“Normally, it’s either-or. An example is a hurricane in the host destination or an act of terror in the home country, but it is never simultaneous. The best example of a health risk in a host country is the 2013 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa … . It is my hypothesis that the perception of Third-World healthcare would increase the risk perception of visiting West Africa after Ebola ended, which will likely be the Caribbean experience,” Crawford stated.

The former member of parliament said that in the aftermath of Ebola, countries like Sierra Leone saw a sharp decline in visitor arrivals; even 11 months after the last reported case in April 2016, tourism was still down 50 per cent, and also had a crippling impact on countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, which were further away from the epicentre than some European nations. As a consequence, he said, the Caribbean will only start to recover in the area of “perception of host safety” when all Caribbean nations successfully fight COVID-19.

He said, however, that by taking Western society’s negative perception of Africa into consideration, the best case for the Caribbean is a rebound twice as fast, as in his estimation, the prospective visitors’ perception of it being safe to travel to the Caribbean will be achieved two months after the travel ban is lifted. Nevertheless, he said this would again be likely impacted by the financial situation in their respective countries, availability of flights, the promotion of staycations, the time of year, and the prices.

“Tourism is perceived as a luxury good. In times of uncertainty, luxury spending is often shelved because consumption is generally replaced by savings. It is also likely that all routes will not immediately receive critical mass to fly profitably to all destinations. This is a threat to Caribbean nations who depend on air and sea travel for visitors,” he noted.

“We should also be prepared for being crowded out of advertising space, as all countries will be actively promoting, with more developed countries having large budgets. I expect all destinations to be discounted, thereby reducing the drawing power of the discounted price. Travellers may also generally fear being guinea pigs for the travel industry and may await confidence-building reports from allocentrics on websites like TripAdvisor suggesting that the coast is clear,” he added.

janet.silvera@gleanerjm.com