What can Bruce say today?

Ian Boyne, Contributor

It has been a disastrous year for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), and every time its leaders think it can't get worse, it does. JLP leaders must be asking, "When will our terrors cease?" Last week gave no indication that would be anytime soon.

The week started off badly for the party with the publication of that front-page story in the Sunday Herald about a former party activist who had given sworn statements in a United States court, alleging murderous plans by a Cabinet minister and high-ranking party leader. But if it had stopped there, the JLP could have ignored the story in the low-circulation paper, or leave it to G2K to remind people of who the financial backers of that paper are.

But when Nationwide took that daring decision on Monday morning to have the accuser on air, in an extensive interview, detailing his bone-chilling charges, the issue could not be ignored. Nationwide has continued, all week, with the story, adding further juice and titillation, with the RJR Communications Group and other media houses also joining in to throw the spotlight on the JLP. The Gleaner has been notably the most restrained, but that was the only little glimmer of positive light shining the JLP way all week.

As though the frightening charges against James Robertson were not enough to destabilise the party, by last Wednesday the Observer had a lead story, 'JLP fallout' which reported that former Montego Bay Mayor Noel Donaldson had received police reports that fellow Labourites were plotting to murder him simply because he had chosen to back the 'wrong candidate' in last weekend's race for deputy leader. Then there was the news that others had also come forward with charges against James Robertson.

By last Wednesday night, we were treated to the latest CVM/Don Anderson polls which showed that if an election were called now, the People's National Party would sweep it in a landslide victory, being 10 per cent ahead of the JLP. Television Jamaica obtained a copy of the closely guarded Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions and revealed to Jamaicans last Thursday night, ahead of its official launch by the prime minister this week, that one in six Jamaicans was classified as poor, spending less than $300 a day, while an astounding 73 per cent of Jamaicans had to make adjustments to their lifestyle because of the economic crisis.

And with Ken Baugh being challenged for the chairmanship of the party by Mike Henry, while general secretary Karl Samuda has endorsed Aundré Franklin as his successor over Golding's confidant Daryl Vaz; and with Horace Chang's supporters still hurting and threatening not to turn up at conference today when the party needs its biggest show of strength, what will Bruce have to say? The fallout from the Dudus-Manatt, Phelps & Phillips crisis would be enough to exercise his mind, and to stretch his leadership and communications skills, but when you add these other bruising issues, Bruce Golding is in quite a predicament today. Will he rise to the challenge, or many challenges, today?

Relentless criticism

The biggest temptation he will face today is to lash out at his political opponents and the media - and to lump them together. Golding has taken much heat from both this year. Whether you feel it's justified or not, you have to admit that both his political opponents and the media have been relentless in their criticisms of him throughout the year. There is only so much one human being can take - it must have occurred to him.

It must be painful for him to see that despite empirical, verifiable successes with some seemingly intractable problems, he gets no credit for them.

The runaway depreciation of the Jamaican dollar, which everybody used to worry about, and which used to obsess the media, has been reversed, and now we have the opposite 'problem' - the dollar is appreciating. But exporters and commentators now curse him for that.

He has engineered one of the most far-reaching economic initiatives in our economic history, the Jamaica Debt Exchange, to save us US$40 billion and allow us to deal with a problem which used to dominate every talk show for years - high interest rates. The Bank of Jamaica has brought down interest rates to levels that no one could have predicted two years ago. Every businessman, every commentator used to talk about how it was meaningless to talk about increasing production without lowering interest rates. This JLP administration has done it and now we hear that "we have to do more than just reduce interest rates". It must be severely tempting for Golding to trace off these persons today.

Inflation continues to fall and, at the end of September, the net international reserves was at US$1.91 billion, substantially ahead of the target set under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement. The country's gross reserves stood at US$2.79 billion at the end of September, representing 20.5 weeks of goods and services, compared with the international benchmark of 12 weeks. Golding gets no credit for that.

The Government has passed three successive IMF tests despite naysayers' predictions to the contrary, and its fiscal balance is now $5 billion better than targeted, with primary balance being $2 billion ahead of target.

Despite these facts - and this is what they are, however you interpret them - the CVM/Don Anderson polls reveal that a majority of Jamaicans, 58 per cent, say the economy is moving in the wrong direction, with only 16 per cent saying it is moving in the right direction.

There has been a major reduction in the murder figures over the last five months. But despite this, a majority of Jamaicans, 56 per cent, say they don't feel any safer now, and 53 per cent say, despite the empirical data, they don't believe crime is really down! The JLP has such a credibility problem, and the people are so fed up with the Government that, like Obama in the United States, they suffer a serious public-relations and communications deficit.

Despite all the explaining that Golding has done on Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, a significant percentage of Jamaicans - 67 per cent - believe he is responsible for that mess, not Harold Brady. Only 10 per cent of Jamaicans, according to the CVM/Don Anderson polls, lay the blame at Brady's feet, and only 32 per cent of Jamaicans say Golding should not resign over the issue, with 49 per cent saying he should resign and 13 per cent saying they are not sure. And 24 per cent of those who say they voted for him the last time, say they would not vote for him if an election were called now. Golding goes into conference today with all these disturbing facts.

He, no doubt, would feel that a lot of the criticisms of him are unjustified, reckless and malicious. Even a Christian would be tempted to cuss under these conditions, but it is temptation Golding must resist - in his own political interest. You can't beat the media in any fight, and you never take on your political opponents and the media at the same time. It's called political suicide.

Control your tongue

Fume and cuss among your friends, but control your tongue when the cameras are on. The worst thing Golding could do today is to lose his cool or display anything that could be construed as arrogance.

Reminding people about "how corrupt the People's National Party was", resurrecting the corpse of Trafigura and the myriad PNP "scandals" will hardly make an impression on that significant 40.9 per cent of Jamaicans who the CVM/Don Anderson polls show as being uncommitted at this time. That segment of the population is not impressed by tracing matches and the exchange of invectives. It does nothing but turn them off and make them feel you don't really get it, Bruce.

The polls already reveal that 47 per cent of Jamaicans say the Manatt, Phelps & Phillips issue was worse than Trafigura. Only 17 per cent feel Trafigura was worse. When asked about which party was more corrupt, 25 per cent say the JLP was more corrupt, with only 16 per cent saying the PNP was more corrupt. But, note this, Bruce, as much as 89 per cent of Jamaicans say both parties are corrupt and, when pressed as to which is more corrupt , 59 per cent give them an equal footing. So it's a plague on both your houses, and nothing you say today to taint the PNP as more corrupt is likely to change perceptions.

But, if one in six Jamaicans is classified as poor, and the PM himself has already admitted that poverty has increased under his watch, with unemployment nearing 12 per cent, the economy declining for 11 straight quarters, and economic growth predicted by his own BOJ governor to be negative for the fiscal year, what can Mr Golding talk passionately to the Jamaican masses about? He can talk about plans and projection for coming out of the recession, but the people have heard all of that before.

Bruce can attempt a few things. He can challenge the PNP on alternatives. He can attempt to demonstrate that though times are hard, the PNP could not do better. If he slams past PNP economic performance, without making it seem he is just playing cheap politics, rather than engaging in rational comparisons, he might get some to think.

Outline a credible programme to tackle corruption and to break the politics-criminality link. Hey, while many are prepared to believe the yet-unproven allegations against James Robertson, no one in Jamaica is so naive as to believe there is no politician in the PNP against whom such charges could not be made. The masses already believe, sadly, that politicians on both sides have links with criminals. People are totally disgusted with the politics-gunman links and that is why the Dudus issue so outrages them and why charges against Robertson are so damaging.

Golding must try to deflect that by frankly admitting the parties' sordid history, but say in effect, "I am the game changer. I want to be the one who put a stop to this and this is what I am going to do."

In our case, it's not just the economy, Stupid. Issues of criminality, corruption, and credibility are uppermost in people's minds, and that is what Golding must effectively - and credibly - address today.

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist who may be reached at ianboyne1@yahoo.com or columns@gleanerjm.com