Jamaica on the brink

Don  Robotham, Guest Columnist

Jamaica is on the
brink of an unprecedented disaster. We are at the very edge of the
precipice. If urgent action is not taken, we will tumble into the ravine
with disastrous results.

Is this alarmist? Some may
wish to think so. After all, haven't we had crises before? Did we not go
through the bloodletting of the 1970s, only to emerge relatively
unscathed? Did we not also survive the financial meltdown of the 1990s
with our financial system intact? Have our athletes not performed
miracles in London? Are our cricketers not the toast of the world? Do we
not continue to produce some of the greatest popular musical artistes
earth has ever seen? Are we not little but
tallawah?

Yes, we are, but this is not enough. Yes,
our athletes amaze us and the world not only with their prowess on the
field but by their humble and engaging personalities. Yes, Chris Gayle
and Marlon Samuels are world-class cricketers. Yes, our music is still
great, slackness notwithstanding. So what?

None of
this will stop the dollar from sliding. None of this will prevent our
foreign-exchange reserves from vanishing. None of this will prevent us
from defaulting on our debt. Nor will it reduce our crime rate, stop
rampant child abuse, help us to cut back on corruption, or reduce
unemployment. All our wonderful achievements in sports and culture will
not have the slightest impact on our rickety high-school system, nor
will they improve our dismal grades in English and math. It will all
come to naught if we don't get a grip, and get it
now.

WORLD CRISIS

The difference
between past and present crises is this: The world is passing through
the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression of 1929-32.
Europe is in deep recession, with unemployment rates in Greece and Spain
exceeding ours. The United States is experiencing an anaemic recovery
and is likely to continue limping along for the foreseeable future.
China's growth rates have been on the decline, with extremely ominous
consequences not only for Asia but for the world
economy.

Jamaica's crisis is occurring in the context
of this global calamity, which multiplies the pressures on us a
thousandfold. In this situation, we can forget the idea of 'getting a
bly' from anyone, China and Venezuela included. Perhaps for the first
time since political Independence in 1962, we are truly on our own,
economically and politically. No one to run to, no one to bail us out,
except the unforgiving bean counters of the International Monetary Fund
coming to carry us off into the wilderness of 'fiscal
consolidation'.

This is a new situation, not only for
our political leadership but for us - the Jamaican people - in general.
Collectively, and for the first time, we are now being required to stand
on our own two feet at a time when we are least prepared to do
so.

We have to cut back not only our budget deficit
but our vulgar and extravagant bling lifestyle at every level of
society. We have to reduce our debt stock, for there is no sugar daddy
out there to lend us money at low interest rates to finance our
consumption. These sugar daddies are too busy looking after their own
very intractable, economic problems. We have to confront our low levels
of productivity, which means, among other things, facing up to the
failures of our school system, not just making pious utterances. We have
to set aside our political divisiveness, as well as address, decisively
and remorselessly, the myriad social problems which our economic
failures have created.

LEADERSHIP AND
COURAGE

But this requires leadership. It also requires
great courage in the population itself. Do we have the national guts to
do it? Can we, as the British did in the worst days of the Battle of
Britain, bite our bottom lip, screw up our courage, unite and pull
through, against superior odds? Are we as a nation made of the right
stuff? We boast a lot, but how tallawah are we really? That is the
question.

To survive a crisis such as the one we are
facing is no ordinary challenge. For it means ending all the hot air,
the deadly knee-jerk tribalism, the political one-upmanship, the class
and racial hypocrisy, the self-centredness, the callous mistreatment of
the vulnerable, the endless, mind-numbing, forget-your-troubles-and-wine
partying. It means getting serious with ourselves and about Jamaica in a
manner that we have never done before.

The first step
is for us to realise the gravity and the urgency of our crisis. Take
your heads out of the sand, Jamaicans - this one is not going to go
away. In fact, it is going to get worse, very worse. The future of your
entire world, and of your children and grandchildren, is at stake here.
Unless urgent steps are taken, we are facing an economic and social
collapse on a scale which will make the meltdown of the 1990s look like a
picnic!

Be clear what this will mean: the public and
private sectors will cave; thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands,
will be laid off; the education and health systems, both public and
private, will shut down. Banks will go bust. Life savings will be wiped
out, whether in local or foreign currencies. Pensions gone, everything
will crash.

Supermarket shelves will become bare and
gas will disappear from the stations. Prices will soar as the exchange
rate zooms off into the stratosphere. Simple things which you currently
take for granted - visiting a friend, going to a football game, playing a
game of dominoes, going shopping, going to church - will become major
challenges as everyone ruthlessly scrambles for survival. Crime rates
will go through the roof. Our entire institutional structure and way of
life will have had the rug pulled from under it. It will
collapse.

This is the bitter reality which we face.
Will we, as a people, face the facts? Will our leadership rise to the
challenge? There is still time, but not much.

Professor Don Robotham is an anthropologist. Email feedback to
columns@gleanerjm.com.