Amina Taylor | What’s in store for us politically in 2025?

Congratulations! We have made it to 2025! Praise be to all the deities who got us here because at one point I was sure whoever was writing the global script had truly lost their collective minds and the plot to boot.

2024 was a massive political year filled with some seismic moments that could determine the global shape of things to come for generations. Like a Jamaican Nostradamus or a melanated Baba Vanga, allow me to stare into my crystal ball and take a look at some of the areas that should hold our political interest for the rest of the year.

The US: The re-election of one Donald J. Trump in November felt like the sequel nobody wanted. Well, it turns out nearly 80 million American voters saw the first instalment of the Trump Show and thought ‘Yes, please’ to more of the same. This time around, Trump 2.0 is promising a pared-back ‘America First’ strategy. The incoming administration, due to be sworn in later in January, promises to have China squarely in its crosshairs with a ‘tariffs war’ on the cards.

There is absolutely no chance the White House would be able to slap double-digit tariffs on Chinese imports and the Chinese not retaliate. Cue a 2025 trade war. Trump had previously promised that Mexican goods and even some Canadian products would also be slapped with their own import duties.

Now you may wonder why this might be so important, especially to members of the Caribbean Diaspora (even my own relatives in Jamaica) who operate businesses that do a rousing trade with manufacturers in China who also ship their products to the US for ease of transportation to the smaller Caribbean islands.

This trading of blows between Washington and Beijing could see smaller nations caught up in the exchange. As we are well aware, when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold, so starting the Trump presidency under an economic cloud of uncertainty is not good news.

It was not so much my crystal ball as Donald Trump‘s very own public utterances that provided a grim prediction for the fate of migrants in the United States. Sources close to the administration have previously pledged to break deportation records as soon as they are able to on taking office. Again, this could mark a period of uncertainty for both family members and, by extension, fragile economies that rely on foreign remittances.

On the plus side, Trump has been rather bombastic in his approach to the situations in both Ukraine and Palestine, urging both Putin and Netanyahu to bring an end to hostilities. In a 2024 that has seen unbearable carnage in global conflicts and unimaginable suffering, perhaps a tone-deaf, plain-talking US president could shift the needle since more measured diplomatic efforts have had little impact.

STEEP LEARNING CURVE

UK politics: Sir Keir’s Labour party is getting to grips with life at the wheel instead of in opposition, and it has been a steep learning curve for a party that has been out of power for nearly a decade and a half. 2025 may yet be the year London has to decide more firmly on its international allegiances. Does this new version of Labour attempt to kiss the ring of Trump and fall in line with the US vision, or might we see a greater pull towards Europe?

At this stage, Starmer can make more decisive stands on global matters when you consider the frailties that have emerged elsewhere. Germans are going to the polls in February, French politics in turmoil. There is so much to play for IF Starmer takes the opportunity to be bold and assert the UK’s independence and take more calculated risks.

Meanwhile, Labour’s major political rivals in the shape of Reform and the Tories have other things occupying their thoughts for 2025. So far, I can only watch as they squabble over membership numbers and fight for photo-ops with high-profile Republicans, but watch this space.

Nigel Farage is a crafty operator, and Kemi Badenoch is just getting the hang of things on the Opposition benches. Both are able to pull that white rabbit out of the hat. I would make a further joke about the Right and their ongoing fixation with the complexion of God’s creatures … but that’s for another time.

Around the world: Chatham House, the policy powerhouse, did well to highlight the potential of the African continent in its The World in 2025 report. I could not be more in agreement on this particular issue. The region has a real opportunity to spread the word of its capabilities and successes across the next 12 months. With South Africa as host and president of the newly expanded G20 forum, the continent can make some powerful connections and forge new alliances if this is their will.

With islands from the Caribbean making ever more important links with the original Motherland, those connections can establish both cultural and economic ties of mutual benefit. It is about time more is made of these political relationships, and I believe the upcoming year will see that trajectory continue.

Perhaps leaders in the Caribbean can start the lobbying process to thrust one of their own into a truly global position as United Nations Secretary General. With Antonio Guterres due to step down and elections for the post to take place in 2026, a full year of canvassing and setting the scene for a Mia Mottley run would be a strategic win. The first woman to hold the post, a daughter of the Caribbean, someone infinitely qualified above everything. C’mon, my CARICOM folks, let’s move on this.

2024 has been one of the most globally redefining periods in my memory. History books were being ripped up as new characters and stories emerged. I see an unveiling across similar themes but it would be nice to be completely wrong. Imagine a plot twist to end all plot twists: peace breaks out, justice is served, and we live in harmony. Unlikely, right? It must be that leftover NYE brandy talking.

Amina Taylor is a journalist and broadcaster. She is the former editor of Pride magazine and works as producer, presenter, and correspondent with Press TV in London.