Editorial | Earthquakes and tsunamis

It is likely, at best, to have caused the merest ripple in the memory of most Jamaicans: that Boxing Day was the 20th anniversary of the Indian Ocean tsunami.

January 14 will mark the 118th year since the Great Earthquake of Kingston.

Although the two events were oceans, and nearly a century, apart, they are relevant to Jamaica, as examples of the destructive force of nature that could happen here – and in tandem.

There are reminders, too, of why Jamaica must robustly prepare for natural disasters, including, as this newspaper has consistently advocated for, aggressively promoting earthquake awareness. And the potential of a tsunami to follow a significant earthquake, which has happened before with respect to Jamaica.

The 2004 Boxing Day tsunami followed a magnitude 9.3 megathrust earthquake – these generally happen where tectonic plates converged and seismic activity forces one under another – off the western coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra.

The vast displacement of water from the event triggered the massive tsunami that hit several countries in the region, including Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand and the Maldives. The tsunami, with waves as high as 167 feet, caused massive destruction in coastal areas, leaving nearly 230,000 people dead across a dozen countries, although some estimates put the figure closer to 250,000. The bulk of the victims were in Sumatra’s Aceh province, where the death toll was around 200,000.

The 2004 tsunami was one of the greatest natural disaster of recorded history, and perhaps the largest so far this century.

SIGNIFICANTLY DESTRUCTIVE

The destruction and death from Jamaica’s 1907 earthquake may not have been of the same magnitude as the Indian Ocean tsunami, but there is no doubt about the devastation it left, mostly in the capital. And its impact on people’s lives.

The 6.2 magnitude earthquake caused hundreds of buildings to collapse, followed by fires which engulfed much of the city. The death toll was 1,200, about 2.5 per cent of the city’s population of the time.

The earthquake also triggered a tsunami, though not a devastating one, on the island’s north shore.

The Great Kingston Earthquake was not the only significantly destructive seismic event ever faced by Jamaica. Two hundred and fifteen years earlier, an estimated magnitude seven quake caused a chunk of Port Royal to sink into the sea. Up to 2,000 people died in that 1692 event.

Since then, the island has faced periodic tremors, including a magnitude 5.6 shake 14 months ago that caused widespread panic across the island. While Jamaica appears to have consistently dodged the bullet, experts warn that a ‘big one’ will inevitably happen.

“It could be in the very near future, or it could still be years away, or decades away,” Simon Mitchell, a professor in sedimentary geology at The University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona, said in August, in the aftermath of a substantial tremor.

URGENT PRIORITY

Jamaica and some of its northern Caribbean neighbours straddle two minor tectonic plates that, along with others in the vicinity, are subjected to buffeting from the North American and South American plates.

“The shear of the North American Plate sliding to the west, and our inability to get past it, has produced mounting tectonic stress in our respective geological provinces,” Shonel Dwyer, geologist, explained in a 2023 newspaper article.

The dangers are obvious. But there are also several other potential sources for earthquakes and tsunamis. Which should make earthquake and tsunami planning a central part of Jamaica’s disaster preparedness programme, and should be heard as much about as hurricanes and floods.

In 2021, the Government actually announced that the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management had developed a tsunami plan. Nonetheless, it would not be unfair to argue that few Jamaicans would know what to do, or where to go, if a tsunami warning was triggered, or even how that alarm would be sounded. Rather, we would say it is a safe bet.

A tsunami warning, therefore, would likely induce panic and chaos.

So, while earthquake and tsunami resilience planning and regulation (including hardening coastal defences) should be accelerated, public education on these matters must be an urgent priority.