Earth Today | World headed for trouble over fossil fuel ambition

A NEW report from the United Nations Environment Programme, the Production Gap Report 2023, has painted a picture of a world headed for trouble unless countries live up to their commitments to drastically reduce their use of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and gas.

Fossil fuel emissions drive global warming, which in turn cause a raft of climate change risks and threats – from sea level rise to coastal erosion, extreme weather events, and compromised food and water security, as well as public health, including with respect of disease prevalence for illnesses such as dengue. Caribbean small island developing states, including Jamaica, are counted among those most vulnerable to these risks and threats.

“Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk,” the report notes among its key findings.

Other key findings include “the string need for governments to adopt near- and long-term reduction targets in fossil fuel production and use, to complement other climate mitigation targets”; as well as the requirement for “an equitable transition away from fossil fuel production” which recognises “countries’ differentiated responsibilities and capabilities”.

“Governments with greater transition capacity should aim for more ambitious reductions and help finance the transition processes in countries with limited capacities,” notes a section of the executive summary of the report, which was officially launched yesterday, November 8.

According to the report, the time is now to act in the best interest of both people and planet, pursuing the Paris Agreement target to hold the increase in the global average temperature to “well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.

“Combined levels of coal, oil, and gas production being planned/projected by 10 high-income countries alone would already exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius-consistent pathways for each fuel by 2040. Similarly, the trajectories of oil and gas production being planned and projected by 12 countries with relatively lower levels of economic dependence on their production would exceed the respective 1.5 degrees Celsius-consistent pathways by 2040,” the report revealed.

“Without active dialogue and engagement between higher- and lower-income countries, these inequities may continue to exist and to erode trust in global cooperation on climate action,” added the report, which reviews the climate ambitions and fossil fuel production policies and strategies of 20 major producer countries.

The countries are Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America.

“Altogether, these countries account for 82 per cent of production and 73 per cent of consumption of the world’s fossil fuel supply,” the report said.

However, while 17 of the countries have noted their commitment to realising net zero emissions and many have started activities to reduce emissions, “most continue to promote subsidise, support and plan on the expansions of fossil fuel production”.

“None”, the report said, “have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius”.

Given these realities, the report said there can be no question of the need “for governments to adopt national and develop international reduction targets for coal, oil, and gas production and use, and pursue them alongside other climate mitigation strategies”.

“This can help to promote policy coherence and coordinate the phase-in of zero-carbon technologies and phase-out of fossil fuels to guide the mid- to longer-term energy transition, including maximising the transition of a skilled fossil fuel workforce into new jobs,” it said.

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