Tony Becca | The day of reckoning

Ninety years ago, the West Indies joined the big boys of cricket; 68 years ago, they joined cricket's aristocrats; and it is 23 years since they were last champions of the world.

As the saying goes, however, 'once a man, twice a child', and after falling away recently, Tuesday, in faraway Harare, will be the start of "the day of reckoning" for them.

The West Indies, once the rulers of cricket, once the kings of the limited-over game, and after failing to qualify for the Champions Trophy, find themselves in a battle to qualify for a place in the coveted World Cup.

And after dropping out of the top eight teams, who qualify automatically for the 10-team tournament, and falling into the bottom four and in the company of six associates, from which only two will to qualify, it will be a battle royal, not particularly from the start, but definitely towards the finish.

The battle will see the 10 teams first exchanging blows in two groups of five teams each with the top three going into a Super Six grouping before the teams play those teams they had not played in the first round and the two winners then going to the World Cup after meeting in the final on March 25.

On paper, or to West Indians, as the top-ranked team in the qualifiers and as the most decorated team in the hunt, the West Indies go in as favourites, not only to qualify, but also to win the tournament.

There is, however, many a slip between the lips and the cup, especially as the Windies are definitely not as strong as yeas ago and remembering also the many surprises in the game, especially so in the limited-over format, where the length and pace of the action level the playing field and make it more competitive.

That is certainly one of the reasons why the Windies are not the hot favourites they should be as their bloodline would suggest.

One of the other reasons is that after looking at most of the other teams in the quest, after looking at their improvement over the past four years, especially the progress of their three main challengers, and after looking at their performances in previous World Cup tournaments, or World T20 Championships, or other matches in which they have crossed swords with each other, one sees some interesting results.

Apart from Papua New Guinea and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the West Indies are up against The Netherlands and Ireland in the first round, and in the second group, the teams are Nepal, Hong Kong, and Scotland, plus Afghanistan and Zimbabwe.

The second round, the Super Six, could be, on a guess, the West Indies, Ireland, and The Netherlands, Afghanistan, Scotland, and Zimbabwe, and that is where the battle really begins.

The big boys - West Indies, Zimbabwe, Ireland, and Afghanistan, plus The Netherlands and Scotland - will do well to remember the story of David and Goliath and must be on their p's and q's from almost the opening exchanges.

Kenya are not in the hunt, but the West Indies will do well to remember 1996 and their stunning defeat to the Kenyans.

The West Indies will also do well to remember the surprise results of Zimbabwe over Australia in 1983, Kenya over Sri Lanka in 2003, Ireland over Pakistan in 2007, Ireland over England in 2011, Ireland over the West Indies in 2015 in previous World Cup tournaments as well as their defeat at the hands of Afghanistan in the last World T20 Championship, the results against Zimbabwe in the tri-nations series recently, and just a few days ago, the defeat at the hands of Afghanistan and the narrow escape against the UAE.

On top of all those memories are the flirting images of experienced players like William Porterfield, Ed Joyce, Kevin O'Brien, Niall O'Brien, Boyd Rankin, Paul Stirling, and George Dockrell of Ireland, of Solomon Mire, Brandon Taylor, Craig Ervine, Sibandra Raja, Graeme Cremer, Hamilton Mushadza, and Blessing Muzambana of Zimbabwe, and of Kyle Coetzer, Ryan ten Doeschante, Imran Haider, and Sandeep Lamichane.

CONFIDENT NEWCOMERS

Most important, however, should be the intimidating presence of the confident newcomers Afghanistan and their line-up of attractive batsmen like Asghar Shanikzai, Samulla Shenwari, Raheem Shah, Ihsanullah, and Javed Ahmandi, pacers Dawlat Zadran and Shapoor Zadran, and their quartet of spinners in Mohamad Nabi, Sharufuddin Ashraf, and teenagers Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Rashid Khan.

The Windies are far short of the power they once were in 50-over play, but in Chris Gayle and Marlon Samuels, Rovman Powell, Jason Holder, and Carlos Brathwaite, they possess some good hitters in their ranks, and in Kemar Roach, Holder, Davendra Bishoo, and Nikita Miller, they also boast a few good bowlers.

They will also be hoping that at least one of their three promising young batsmen - Evin Lewis, Shai Hope, and Shimron Hetmeyer - come good, especially to back up captain Holder's bold talk a few days ago of using the qualifiers as a warm-up to winning the World Cup.

Despite losing a practice game to Afghanistan a few days ago, the West Indies, or the Windies, should justify the favourite's tag, waltz into the final, and win the qualifying exercise despite the uncertainty of the game, the unpredictable nature of the limited-over version, and the rain around Zimbabwe, especially that at no time, like during the World Cup finals, will there be a knockout stage.

Even if the bowlers stumble, however, and stray in their length and line, there should be, or there could be, many days of celebration for the West Indies in Zimbabwe, providing Lewis gets cracking, Samuels produces his usual big-day performance, Brathwaite waves his magic wand as he did in the last World T20 Championship, and most of all, if the West Indies get to the final and Gayle comes to the party when it matters most.

Who will win, or should win, the shootout? Will it be the usual upsetters, Ireland? Will it be the romantic favourites Afghanistan, will it be a darkhorse? Or will it be West Indies, the past champions?

Despite their reputation as giant killers, remembering that Ireland will go in with an ageing team and that Afghanistan recently defeated Zimbabwe 4-1, that Afghanistan beat the West Indies once last year and once this year, and especially that both teams are ranked above Ireland and Zimbabwe at this time, with the West Indies just in front, it could be, and should be, a West Indies-Afghanistan final, with the Windies, remembering their pedigree, to win it all.

There will be, however, more than likely, some nervous moments for the once mighty West Indies. Holder, and his ambassadors, must be, or may need to be, on top of their form to win it and to win convincingly.

One thing is certain: it will be "D Day" for the West Indies, whether they like to admit it or not.