NEW YORK: Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts – including me – expected that the US and global economy would suffer a recession. Falling but still-sticky inflation suggested that monetary policy...
NEW YORK: Following the May G7 summit in Hiroshima, US President Joe Biden claimed that he expects a “thaw” in relations with China. Yet despite some recent official bilateral meetings – with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet...
NEW YORK: The world economy is lurching towards an unprecedented confluence of economic, financial, and debt crises, following the explosion of deficits, borrowing, and leverage in recent decades. In the private sector, the mountain of debt...
NEW YORK – How will the global economy and markets evolve over the next year? There are four scenarios that could follow the “mild stagflation” of the last few months. The recovery in the first half of 2021 has given way recently...
NEW YORK – I have been warning for several months that the current mix of persistently loose monetary, credit, and fiscal policies will excessively stimulate aggregate demand and lead to inflationary overheating. Compounding the problem,...
NEW YORK – About half a year into Joe Biden’s presidency, it is time to consider how his administration’s economic doctrine compares to that of former President Donald Trump and previous Democratic and Republican administrations....
NEW YORK – After the most severe global recession in decades, private and official forecasters are increasingly optimistic that world output will recover strongly this year and thereafter. But the coming expansion will be unevenly distributed...
NEW YORK – There is a growing debate about whether the inflation that will arise over the next few months will be temporary, reflecting the sharp bounce-back from the COVID-19 recession, or persistent, reflecting both demand-pull and cost-...
