Elizabeth Morgan | India’s interest in the CARICOM region

THE PRIME Minister of India, Narendra Modi, paid an official visit to Guyana from November 19-21. It was the second time an Indian prime minister had visited that country since Prime Minister Indira Gandhi visited in October 1968. Besides his bilateral meetings/events in Guyana, Prime Minister Modi participated in the second CARICOM/India Summit on November 20. The first summit was held in New York on the margins of the UN General Assembly in September 2019.

There have been several visits to the CARICOM region by Indian government officials since 2022. These visits have been addressed in this Gleaner column. CARICOM leaders have visited India, such as Prime Minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines, Dr Ralph Gonsalves, in September 2019; President of Guyana, Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali, and President of Suriname, Mr Chandrikapersad Santokhi, in January 2023; Prime Minister Keith Rowley of Trinidad and Tobago in May 2024, and Prime Minister of Jamaica, Dr Andrew Holness, in September/October 2024.

There is mutual interest in strengthening relations between India and CARICOM countries and specifically between India and Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and Suriname. On the face of it, the interest seems to be particularly between Guyana and India.

What is driving the interest in strengthening this relationship?

• FOSSIL FUELS (OIL)

India is a major consumer of energy. It has been pointed out that India has keen interest in the oil resources in Guyana, as well as in Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. Suriname could have resources of 2.4 billion barrels. Trinidad and Tobago’s resources are now at 241 million barrels. Guyana has 11 billion barrels of removable oil resources and explorations are continuing. US-based oil company, ExxonMobil, is invested in Guyana’s exploration and production.

It is reported that India wants to import up to two million barrels of oil from Guyana, seeing it as key to its energy security. Guyana and India signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen cooperation in hydrocarbon trade and petroleum products. Talks between the two will continue, with Indian investors continuing to show interest in Guyana.

• INDIAN DIASPORA

As is known, there has been a long relationship between India and CARICOM countries dating to the colonial period. Both the territories of the British West Indies (BWI) and India were part of the British Empire. Actually, from 1757 to 1858, through the East India Company, Britain controlled much of India. However, India did not formally come directly under British rule until 1858. From 1838 to 1917, Indian contractual indentured workers were sent to the BWI, to other British colonies, and to foreign colonial territories. For the duration of the indenture system, about 450, 000 Indians were brought to the BWI with 36, 000 to Jamaica, 144, 000 to Trinidad and Tobago, 239,000 to Guyana, and the rest to the other islands. Under the Dutch, about 35,000 indentured labourers were recruited to work in Suriname between 1868-1916.

Today, possibly over a million people of Indian descent are in the CARICOM region with most being in Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, and Jamaica.

In its foreign policy, it appears that India is increasingly seeing its diaspora as having strategic importance. It will be recalled that the Indian High Commission in Jamaica hosted a diaspora event. In CARICOM, countries have been developing their diaspora policies. It is not clear how significant the Caribbean diaspora presence in India actually is, although there are people with Caribbean ancestry living in India.

• INCREASING INDIA’S INFLUENCE

India, with a population of 1.4 billion, is now the world’s fifth largest economy after the United States, China, Japan, and Germany (EU). Its gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 is projected to be about seven per cent. India has the potential to be an economic and military superpower. It wants to increase its influence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The LAC is the traditional sphere of influence of the USA, and China has also been making inroads in this region.

India and China with Russia and Brazil are members of the BRICS alliance which aspire to change the US/Western dominated world order and is courting the countries of the Global South. It has established a development bank and is examining alternative payment options in trade. CARICOM has been invited to BRICS summits in the past. CARICOM members have indicated interest in the BRICS alliance, which has expanded.

President-elect Donald Trump clearly has been briefed about the BRICS and their aspirations. The US president-elect is now threatening to impose 100 per cent tariffs against BRICS members if they have the temerity to challenge US dominance.

INDIA/CARICOM SUMMIT

CARICOM leaders attending this second summit on November 20, among other things, expressed pride in the shared historical and cultural ties, shared interests, commitment to democracy, freedom, rule of law, and in reformed multilateralism. They pledged to strengthen economic and commercial relations, including cooperation in energy and infrastructure; agriculture and food security; health and pharmaceuticals, and technology and innovation.

As said in previous articles, it will take some work for CARICOM countries to increase their exports to India in goods and services generally. They should prioritise increasing technical and economic cooperation with India.

The third joint summit is scheduled to be held in India. A timeframe has not been given considering that the second summit was convened 5 years after the first.

As previously stated, CARICOM Heads and Foreign Ministers have to also consider how they will manoeuvre in their relationships with India, China, and the incoming Trump USA administration, contending forces, so as not to experience collateral damage.

Elizabeth Morgan, is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com